“Were I a politician, I would be compelled to acknowledge a looming demographic challenge. A significant portion of the electorate, those well into their 30s, feel disenfranchised and are expressing their discontent through their voting choices.”
From the burden of housing costs to the weight of student loan debt and the struggle for meaningful employment, a leading voice within the youth sector is urging the government to address the critical issues facing young people with urgency.
Chief among these concerns is the alarming statistic that approximately one million young individuals are neither employed, nor in education or training—a demographic often referred to by the acronym NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training).
This issue is not new. Over the years, numerous ministers have pledged decisive action to rectify what is widely perceived as a significant squandering of potential.
However, with NEET numbers on the rise and the ongoing political discourse surrounding welfare, the political ramifications may be intensifying.
Recent polling data indicates notable support for Reform UK and the Green Party among voters under 30.
An average of four polls conducted this autumn by the research group More in Common—each surveying roughly 2,000 individuals—reveals the Green Party, under the leadership of Zack Polanski, as the preferred choice among young women.
The polls also show Reform UK and the Green Party tied at 20% among young men, trailing Labour’s 30%. However, Reform UK holds the lead among young men without university degrees.
Luke Tryl of More in Common suggests that, given the pressures, “it’s little wonder these young people are giving up on mainstream politics, and instead turning to parties that promise to burn it all down and start again like Reform and the Greens.”
“Mainstream parties would be naive to assume that these voters will simply return when they get older,” he adds.
Does the government recognize the severity of the situation? Josh Simons, a government minister, expressed his views candidly this week.
In a post on X, Simons acknowledged the potential for a “shit” life in the UK due to economic instability and the financial strain of raising children in one’s 20s, 30s, and 40s.
It is unlikely that Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden will use such blunt language when he joins us in the studio tomorrow to discuss strategies for reducing the number of unemployed young people.
However, one cabinet minister conceded, “It is undeniable that young people are at a disadvantage, and youth unemployment is a critical issue, not only for that generation but also for their parents and grandparents.”
The statistics paint a concerning picture. Between July and September of this year, 946,000 young people were neither working nor studying, representing over 10% of all 16-24-year-olds.
This demographic is disproportionately male, with higher rates observed in the North East and East of England. Over half report a health condition, and approximately one in five report a mental health condition.
Numerous factors can contribute to a young person becoming “economically inactive,” to use the technical term.
The rising cost of education may be a deterrent. The sluggish economy of recent years has resulted in a lackluster job market for young workers. The pandemic has also had a profound impact.
Unemployment is generally on the rise, and tax adjustments and minimum wage increases have made it more expensive for businesses to hire, which many fear will disproportionately affect young people’s opportunities.
Illness and mental health problems are also on the rise.
Separately, following an interview earlier this year in which the health secretary suggested that mental health problems were being over-diagnosed, Wes Streeting now indicates that he may have been too quick to judge.
He is now calling for a formal review of the evidence to determine whether over-diagnosis is a legitimate concern. However, the number of young people reporting that health issues are preventing them from working has increased dramatically.
Improving the prospects for young people struggling to find their place in society is only one facet of addressing the disparities between generations.
The cost of housing, childcare, student debt, and the resulting disaffection and frustration are widespread among younger voters of all backgrounds.
The nature of work has also become more precarious, particularly for those just starting out, with 16-24-year-olds nearly six times more likely to be employed on zero-hours contracts.
Given the Labour Party’s historic commitment to the welfare state, it is challenging for its politicians to openly acknowledge that, as one minister privately admitted, “if you can earn more by claiming to be ill, it is a logical decision.”
The benefits system’s complexity can create perverse incentives to avoid seeking employment.
Although the government was compelled to withdraw some proposed benefit changes in response to backbench opposition, former Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall introduced the “right to try” concept, which allows individuals to trial a job without the fear of losing their benefits and having to reapply if it does not work out.
Ministers are hesitant to ignite a contentious debate about who is “deserving” in society.
According to one government source, “The left holds a paternalistic view that welfare recipients are incapable of self-sufficiency, while the right believes they are inherently incapable of achieving anything. We must reject both extremes.”
However, with soaring welfare costs and a substantial number of young people neither employed nor in education, the government faces political, financial, and perhaps even moral pressure to take action.
Former minister Alan Milburn has been tasked with investigating the underlying causes. His report is expected next year. In the coming months, the government will launch the Youth Guarantee, which will provide guaranteed paid employment to young people who have been out of work or education for 18 months.
Pat McFadden will reveal further details about the program’s launch locations and timeline when we speak to him tomorrow.
Will these initiatives adequately address the magnitude of the problem? One minister expressed concern that the government is unwilling to be sufficiently radical, telling me, “We do not appear to be interested in overhauling a system that is failing young people.”
Improving the prospects for young people struggling to find their place in society is only one facet of addressing the disparities between generations.
A youth charity leader suggested, “It’s like a guilty secret, the country knows that young people are getting a raw deal but nobody is doing anything about it.”
While ministers would dispute this assertion, failing to confront this issue presents a clear political risk, while addressing it may offer an opportunity for forward-thinking politicians.
Lead image: PA Media
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