“Were I a politician, I would recognize a looming demographic challenge. A significant portion of the voting population, now well into their 30s, feels disenfranchised and is beginning to express their discontent at the ballot box.”
A leading voice in the youth sector is cautioning the government about the urgent need to address the profound challenges faced by young people today, ranging from housing affordability and student debt to securing meaningful employment.
Of particular concern is the approximately one million young adults who are not in education, employment, or training, often referred to by the acronym NEET.
While this issue is not new, with successive ministers pledging decisive action to address what many view as a critical waste of potential, the number of NEETs continues to rise amid a heated political debate surrounding welfare.
Recent polling data suggests growing support for parties such as Reform and the Green Party among voters under 30.
According to an average of four polls conducted this autumn by the research group More in Common, which surveyed approximately 2,000 individuals each time, the Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, is currently the most popular choice among young women.
The polls indicate that Reform and the Green Party are tied at 20% among young men, trailing Labour’s 30%. However, Reform holds the lead among young men without a university degree.
Luke Tryl of More in Common suggests that the prevailing pressures are “leading young people to abandon mainstream politics in favor of parties like Reform and the Greens, which promise radical change.”
He cautions, “Mainstream parties would be wise not to assume that these voters will automatically return as they age.”
Josh Simons, a government minister, recently expressed his candid views on the challenges facing young people in the UK.
In a post on X, Simons acknowledged the “shit” realities stemming from economic insecurity and the financial burdens associated with raising children in one’s 20s, 30s, and 40s.
While Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden may take a less blunt approach when he joins us in the studio tomorrow to discuss addressing the rising number of young people out of work, one cabinet minister conceded that “young people are indeed getting a raw deal, and youth unemployment is a top priority, not only for that generation but for their parents and grandparents as well.”
The statistics paint a stark picture. Between July and September of this year, 946,000 young people were neither working nor studying, representing over 10% of all individuals aged 16-24.
Young men are disproportionately affected, with higher rates observed in the North East and East of England. Over half of those affected report a health condition, and approximately one in five struggle with a mental health condition.
Multiple factors contribute to a young person’s “economic inactivity,” as it is often termed.
The rising cost of education may deter some, while a stagnant economy limits job opportunities for young workers. The COVID-19 pandemic has also had a profound impact.
Overall unemployment is on the rise, and tax policies and minimum wage increases have made it more expensive for businesses to hire, disproportionately affecting young people’s prospects.
Additionally, rates of both physical and mental health challenges are increasing.
Separately, following an earlier interview where the health secretary suggested that mental health issues were being over-diagnosed, Wes Streeting has since indicated that he may have spoken too hastily.
He has called for a formal review of the available evidence to determine the extent to which over-diagnosis is a genuine concern. However, the number of young individuals citing health as a barrier to work has grown considerably.
Improving the outlook for young people struggling to find their place in society is only one element of addressing the disparities between generations.
Whether it’s housing costs, childcare expenses, student loan debt, or overall disillusionment, dissatisfaction is widespread among younger voters.
Moreover, the nature of work has become increasingly precarious, especially for those just starting their careers. 16-24-year-olds are nearly six times more likely to be on zero-hours contracts.
While it may be difficult for Labour politicians to admit, given the party’s historical ties to the welfare state, one minister privately acknowledged that “if individuals can earn more through claiming sickness benefits, it is a rational choice for them.”
While complex, the benefits system can inadvertently incentivize individuals not to seek employment.
Despite the government backtracking on certain benefit changes in response to backbench opposition, former Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall introduced the “right to try” initiative, enabling individuals to trial a job without the risk of losing their benefits and having to reapply if the opportunity does not work out.
Ministers are wary of fueling divisive debates about who is “deserving” in society.
One government source noted: “The left tends to hold a paternalistic view that welfare recipients are incapable of self-sufficiency, while the right often believes they are destined for failure. We must reject both of these notions.”
Nonetheless, given the soaring costs of welfare and the sheer number of young people who are neither employed nor learning, there is considerable political, financial, and possibly even moral pressure on the government to take action.
Former minister Alan Milburn has been tasked with examining the underlying causes of the issue. His review will be published next year. In the coming months, the government will also introduce the Youth Guarantee, which will provide guaranteed paid employment to young people who have been out of work or education for 18 months.
Pat McFadden will share further details about the program’s launch locations and timeline when we speak to him tomorrow.
Whether the proposed measures will be sufficient to address the scale of the problem remains to be seen. One minister expressed concern that the government is unwilling to pursue sufficiently radical solutions, stating, “We don’t appear interested in overhauling the system that is failing young people.”
Improving the outlook for young people struggling to find their place in society is only one element of addressing the disparities between generations.
According to a youth charity leader, “It’s akin to a national secret; the country is aware that young people are getting a raw deal, but no one is taking meaningful action.”
Ministers would dispute this claim, but there is a clear political risk for those who choose to ignore the issue, and perhaps an opportunity for those who address it head-on.
Lead image: PA Media
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