Northern Ireland’s Group A campaign has concluded, and attention now shifts to the World Cup play-off semi-final in March.
Michael O’Neill’s squad secured a play-off berth by virtue of being among the four highest-ranked Nations League group winners who did not finish in the top two of their qualifying group.
This guarantees Northern Ireland an away fixture against a pot one side in the play-off semi-final. Their opponents will be determined in Thursday’s draw at noon.
With the landscape now defined, who are the four potential adversaries Northern Ireland could face in their play-off semi-final?
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Italy suffered a 4-1 home defeat to Haaland’s Norway in their final qualifier.
World ranking: Ninth World Cup qualifying group: Second behind Norway Last World Cup: 2014
Considering their historical significance and standing within international football, it is remarkable that Italy has been absent from the World Cup since 2014 in Brazil.
However, the four-time champions face the risk of missing their third consecutive global tournament after finishing second in Group I, trailing Erling Haaland’s Norway, who secured automatic qualification.
Their campaign was bookended by two defeats against Norway, including a resounding 4-1 loss in Milan to conclude their efforts last week.
Despite their recent form, the Italians remain the team that most will hope to avoid in the play-offs, and are the highest-ranked team by a significant margin.
Northern Ireland last faced Italy in 2021, playing a role in Italy’s absence from the Qatar World Cup. A goalless draw in Belfast prevented Roberto Mancini’s side from securing the top spot and automatic qualification, leading to their eventual defeat against North Macedonia in the play-offs.
Domenico Berardi and Ciro Immobile scored in a 2-0 victory in the return fixture that same campaign, which opened Group D that March.
Scott McTominay’s early goal set Scotland on their way to the World Cup at the expense of Denmark.
World ranking: 20th World Cup qualifying group: Second behind Scotland Last World Cup: 2022
Denmark were on the verge of securing top spot in Group C, until Kiernan Tierney and Kenny McLean intervened, sending Scotland to the World Cup as group winners in a thrilling contest in Glasgow.
It was a disappointing end to the campaign for the Danes, who appeared poised to qualify for the finals in Mexico, the USA, and Canada.
They now pose a potentially dangerous threat in the play-offs.
Northern Ireland and Denmark have a significant amount of recent history.
They last played in June in Copenhagen, when Christian Eriksen scored the decisive goal in a 2-1 victory for Denmark.
In Euro 2024 qualifying, Denmark narrowly won at home, but a strong performance from Michael O’Neill’s young team saw them finish their campaign on a positive note.
Real Madrid’s Arda Guler is one of Turkey’s key players.
World ranking: 26th World Cup qualifying group: Second behind Spain Last World Cup: 2002
It is hard to believe that Turkey has only qualified for one World Cup since 1958, a situation similar to Italy.
That sole appearance was at the 2002 tournament in South Korea and Japan, where Turkey finished third.
Vincenzo Montella’s side has been an entertaining team in Group E, scoring 17 goals in five matches but conceding 12.
They started with a 3-2 win in Georgia and were subsequently defeated 6-0 by Spain in their second match.
Turkey then beat Bulgaria 6-1 and Georgia 4-1, before a more conventional 2-0 win over the Bulgarians.
There was more excitement in the final qualifier, as Turkey and Spain drew 2-2 in Seville.
Expect goals regardless of who Turkey draws.
Ukraine defeated Iceland to secure second place in Group D behind France.
World ranking: 27th World Cup qualifying group: Second behind France Last World Cup: 2006
Thanks to Austria’s late equaliser against Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ukraine narrowly secured a place in pot one for the World Cup play-offs.
Ukraine had already secured second place in Group D after their win over Iceland in the deciding final qualifier.
This will be the draw that most pot four teams want, for two reasons. Firstly, they are the lowest-ranked of the four nations.
Secondly, the fixture would likely be played at a neutral venue. Ukraine’s three ‘home’ qualifiers were all played in Poland, in Warsaw, Krakow, and Wroclaw due to the ongoing conflict with Russia.
Northern Ireland’s last meeting with Ukraine was a friendly in 2021, when Oleksandr Zubkov scored an early winner.
More memorably, O’Neill’s Northern Ireland stunned Ukraine for their first win at Euro 2016.
The draw for the 2026 World Cup play-offs will take place in Switzerland on Thursday at noon.
Teams will be drawn into four paths, each containing two semi-finals and a final.
Pot one sides will be drawn at home to the four Nations League winners, which includes Northern Ireland.
Pot two teams, including Wales, will be at home to pot three teams, including the Republic of Ireland, in the other four semi-finals.
The winners of the respective semi-finals in each of the four paths will then meet in a final, with the four winners of each path qualifying for the World Cup finals.
An open draw will determine which team hosts the final, with seedings not taken into account.
The one-legged semi-final will take place on March 26th, with the finals scheduled for March 31st.
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