Sources close to the Prime Minister have asserted that he is prepared to contest any leadership challenge mounted by Labour MPs.
Loyalists of Sir Keir Starmer are reportedly concerned about the potential for an immediate threat to his position, possibly emerging shortly after the Budget announcement in two weeks.
Critics suggest these reports indicate Downing Street is adopting a “bunker mentality,” which they argue “won’t help the government out of the hole we’re in.”
Allies of Sir Keir are expressing significant concern regarding perceived efforts to replace him, emphasizing the serious risks associated with a leadership challenge.
Names circulating among Labour MPs as potential candidates to succeed Sir Keir include prominent figures within his shadow cabinet, notably Wes Streeting, the Shadow Health Secretary, and Shabana Mahmood, the Shadow Home Secretary.
Speculation also surrounds the ambitions of Ed Miliband, the Shadow Energy Secretary, and backbenchers such as Louise Haigh, the former Shadow Transport Secretary.
“He will fight this,” a minister stated, referencing a key by-election in 2021, in which Labour lost to the Conservatives, leading Sir Keir to consider resigning as Labour leader.
“This is not a Hartlepool moment,” they added.
“He is one of only two people alive who have won a general election for Labour. It’d be madness to run against him after 17 months.”
For months, many within the Labour Party have acknowledged that the government is likely to face a critical juncture following the upcoming devolved elections in Scotland and Wales, as well as local elections across England in May.
While Labour is widely expected to perform poorly in these elections, some party members are increasingly concerned that a leadership change cannot wait until then.
Downing Street is reportedly aware of the potential for such a challenge to materialize soon.
One senior Labour MP told us: “It’s all very well to say wait for the locals, but that’s my activist base I’m sending into the gunfire. I can’t lose all my councillors.”
Another Labour source said: “The list of reasons for people to move after the Budget are growing by the day.”
“If Wes is brave and moves he may well be rewarded by being prime minister by Christmas.”
The ambition of Streeting is viewed with particular suspicion by some loyal to the prime minister.
A spokesman for Streeting told the BBC “these claims are categorically untrue”.
“Wes’s focus has entirely been on cutting waiting lists for the first time in 15 years, recruiting 2,500 more GPs, and rebuilding the NHS that saved his life,” he added.
The Shadow Health Secretary is scheduled to conduct a series of interviews on Wednesday morning, primarily focused on his plans to reform the NHS in England.
A government source said Downing Street “has gone into full bunker mode, turning on their most loyal cabinet members for absolutely no reason”.
“Unfortunately there is a pattern of Keir’s team briefing against his own people- they did it to Angela, Lisa, Lucy, now it’s Wes’s turn,” the source added.
“A circular firing squad won’t help the government out of the hole we’re in,” a government source said – referring to the former and current deputy leaders, Angela Rayner and Lucy Powell respectively, and the Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy.
The Prime Minister’s supporters are cautioning Labour MPs to consider the potential consequences of their actions.
They contend that a leadership contest would plunge the party into the same turmoil that plagued the Conservative Party during its final years in office, culminating in its defeat last year, and install a leader lacking a direct mandate from the electorate.
They are attempting to persuade colleagues that a contest could destabilize international markets and jeopardize the Prime Minister’s established relationship with President Trump.
However, others, including some ministers, are expressing concern about what they perceive as the government’s precarious position.
“It’s terrible. He [Starmer] is hated out there. It is worse than it got under Corbyn. I don’t see how this is sustainable until May,” one minister said.
Opinion polls suggest Sir Keir is deeply unpopular, perhaps even the most unpopular British prime minister in the history of modern opinion polling.
Polls also suggest the Labour Party has commanded the support of no more than a fifth of the electorate in recent months.
A cabinet minister supportive of the Prime Minister summarizes the prevailing sentiment among colleagues: “There are those who see it as a choice between this Labour government and perfection.”
“The closer they can nudge us towards the policies they see as perfect, the happier they are.”
“But the choice isn’t between us and perfection, it’s between us and Reform.”
The rise of Reform UK has concentrated minds in Downing Street in recent months.
The Prime Minister sees Labour’s battle with Reform leader Nigel Farage as generation-defining – and the prospect of losing to Reform at a general election as vastly worse than Labour losses to the Conservatives.
He believes he has the energy and wherewithal to take on and defeat Farage.
But a growing number of his colleagues are not convinced.
“We are not like the Tories. We’re not going to change leader more than once in a parliament,” one Labour MP first elected last year told us.
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