Over the past two months, the United States military has been bolstering its presence in the Caribbean Sea, deploying warships, fighter jets, bombers, Marines, drones, and reconnaissance aircraft. This represents the most significant deployment to the region in decades.
Long-range B-52 bombers have conducted “bomber attack demonstrations” off the Venezuelan coast. The Trump administration has also authorized the CIA to operate in Venezuela, and the world’s largest aircraft carrier is being dispatched to the area.
The U.S. claims to have neutralized numerous individuals in strikes targeting small Venezuelan vessels, alleging they were transporting “narcotics” and “narco-terrorists.” However, the U.S. has not provided specific evidence or details regarding the identities of those on board.
These strikes have faced condemnation within the region, and legal experts have questioned their legitimacy. While the U.S. frames these actions as a war against drug trafficking, indicators suggest that the underlying objective is to intimidate and ultimately remove Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power.
“This is about regime change. They’re probably not going to invade, the hope is this is about signalling,” states Dr. Christopher Sabatini, a senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House.
He posits that the military buildup serves as a show of force, aiming to “strike fear” within the ranks of the Venezuelan military and Maduro’s inner circle, thereby inciting them to turn against him.
BBC Verify has been diligently monitoring publicly accessible tracking data of U.S. ships and aircraft in the region, alongside satellite imagery and social media content, to ascertain the locations of U.S. forces.
Given the evolving nature of the deployment, regular monitoring has been conducted to provide up-to-date information.
As of October 23rd, ten U.S. military vessels were identified in the region, including guided missile destroyers, amphibious assault ships, and oil tankers utilized for at-sea refueling.
It is well-documented that the U.S. administration, particularly Secretary of State Marco Rubio, desires the removal of Maduro from power.
Earlier this year, Rubio described Maduro as a “horrible dictator” on Fox News. When questioned about demanding Maduro’s departure, he responded, “We’re going to work on that policy.”
However, even for vocal critics like Rubio, openly advocating for military-backed regime change is a sensitive issue, despite it being a long-held aspiration of some Venezuelan opposition members.
During his 2016 campaign, Donald Trump pledged to “stop racing to topple foreign regimes,” and has recently condemned engaging in “forever wars.”
The U.S. does not recognize Maduro as the legitimate president of Venezuela. The results of the 2024 election were contested, and the election’s conduct was widely criticized internationally, and by the Venezuelan opposition, as neither free nor fair.
The U.S. has increased its bounty for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million, aiming to incentivize members of his inner circle to turn him in. However, this has not resulted in any defections.
Venezuelan law professor and senior associate at the CSIS national security think tank, Jose Ignacio Hernández, argues that $50 million is “nothing” for Venezuela’s elites.
Significant illicit profits can be accrued through corruption within an oil-rich nation like Venezuela. Former Treasury head Alejandro Andrade, for instance, amassed $1 billion in bribes before his conviction.
Many analysts concur that the Venezuelan military holds the key to any regime change. However, for them to turn against Maduro, they would likely seek assurances of immunity from prosecution.
Mr. Hernández added, “They will think, in some way or another I am involved in criminal activities too.”
Michael Albertus, a political science professor at the University of Chicago who has extensively researched Latin America, remains unconvinced that even a $500 million bounty would sway Maduro’s inner circle.
“Authoritarian leaders are always suspicious of even their inner circle, and because of that, they create mechanisms for monitoring them and ensuring loyalty,” he explained.
Economic sanctions imposed on Venezuela have exacerbated the already severe economic crisis, but have not successfully induced senior figures to betray their president.
Donald Trump has characterized the situation as a war on narcotics traffickers, claiming that one vessel targeted by the U.S. on October 16th was “loaded up with mostly fentanyl.”
However, fentanyl is primarily produced in Mexico, not South America, and enters the U.S. across the southern border.
“It isn’t about drugs,” Dr. Sabatini asserts. “But he’s co-opted the Venezuelan opposition’s language of how this is not just a dictatorship – it’s a criminal regime.”
Since 2020, the U.S. Justice Department has accused President Maduro of heading a drug trafficking and narco-terrorism organization, allegations he denies. Trump has stated that he authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela partly due to “drugs coming in” from the country.
Venezuela is not a major producer of cocaine; that distinction primarily belongs to Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia. Some cocaine is trafficked through Venezuela, a practice that its government claims to be combating.
A U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration report from 2025 indicated that 84% of the cocaine seized in the U.S. originated from Colombia, mentioning other countries but not Venezuela in its cocaine section.
The initial seven strikes occurred in the Caribbean, which is not a primary drug-trafficking sea route compared to the Pacific Ocean, where subsequent strikes were conducted.
The U.S. has not provided detailed evidence to support its claims of Maduro leading a drug trafficking organization. Maduro has consistently refuted these accusations, accusing the U.S. of imperialism and exacerbating Venezuela’s economic crisis through sanctions.
There are known instances of individuals close to him being indicted.
In 2016, a New York federal court convicted the nephews of Maduro’s wife for conspiring to import cocaine into the U.S. The case alleged that they intended to use some of the proceeds to fund his wife’s political campaign. They were later released in a prisoner exchange agreement with the U.S.
The Pentagon has ordered the deployment of a carrier strike group to the region.
This includes the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier.
In addition to the U.S. ships tracked around Puerto Rico, where the U.S. maintains a military base, satellite imagery also revealed two vessels approximately 75 miles (123 km) east of Trinidad and Tobago.
One of these was identified as the guided missile cruiser USS Lake Erie.
The other appeared to be the MV Ocean Trader, according to Bradley Martin, a former U.S. Navy captain and current senior policy researcher at RAND Corp.
This vessel is a converted cargo ship designed to support special forces missions while blending in with commercial traffic. It is equipped to house drones, helicopters, and small boats.
It could potentially support a variety of missions, including reconnaissance to prepare for strikes. However, Mr. Martin emphasizes that its presence “doesn’t necessarily mean that those kinds of activities are being carried out or are planned.”
Military analysts have observed that intercepting drugs at sea does not necessitate a force as substantial as the current U.S. deployment.
The U.S. has also increased its air presence in the region. BBC Verify has identified several U.S. military aircraft across Puerto Rico.
Stu Ray, a senior analyst at McKenzie Intelligence Services, indicates that a satellite image taken on October 17th shows F-35 fighter jets on the tarmac, possibly F-35Bs.
These are highly advanced stealth jets known for their short take-off and vertical landing capabilities.
On social media, a private jet pilot shared a video of an MQ-9 Reaper drone, filmed at Rafael Hernández Airport in Puerto Rico.
These drones have been utilized by the U.S. for attacks and surveillance in Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, and Mali.
Earlier in October, BBC Verify tracked three B-52 bombers flying across the Caribbean and close to Venezuela’s coast.
The U.S. Air Force later confirmed that these planes participated in a “bomber attack demonstration.”
Flights of B1 bombers and P-8 Poseidon spy planes have also been observed on plane tracking platforms.
Images on social media have also depicted military helicopters operating off the coast of Trinidad and Tobago.
Some of these helicopters are Boeing MH-6M Little Birds, nicknamed “Killer Eggs,” which are used by U.S. special forces.
When questioned about whether the CIA had been authorized to remove Maduro, Donald Trump evaded the question and deemed it “ridiculous” to answer.
He has also stated that the U.S. is “looking at land now,” alluding to potential military operations on Venezuelan soil.
The CIA is viewed with considerable suspicion by many in Latin America due to its history of covert interventions, attempts at regime change, and support for past right-wing military dictatorships, particularly in Chile and Brazil.
Ned Price, deputy to the U.S. representative to the United Nations and formerly a CIA senior analyst and State Department senior advisor, stated that CIA covert action can take “many forms.”
“It can be information operations. It can be sabotage operations. It can be funding opposition parties. It can go as far as the overthrow of a regime. There are a lot of options between the low-end and high-end option.”
This could entail agents targeting trafficking suspects within Venezuela, potentially including Maduro himself, according to the U.S.’s own definition.
Dr. Sabatini suggests that, given Venezuela’s limited role in drug production, there are no cocaine or fentanyl labs to “take out,” but there are airstrips or ports that the U.S. could target.
“If he wants to be aggressive, he could send a missile to a military barrack. There is pretty good intelligence certain sectors of the military are involved in cocaine trafficking.”
He also mentions a possible “smash and grab situation” involving the capture of Maduro or his lieutenants for prosecution in the U.S.
The central question, he argues, is how long Trump is willing to maintain such a significant U.S. military presence in the Caribbean.
If the primary purpose of this military buildup is to intimidate Maduro, it remains unclear whether it will be sufficient to prompt defections.
Professor Albertus contends that whether this will lead to an actual attempt to remove the Maduro regime by force is difficult to determine.
Air traffic controllers are calling out or finding side jobs while they work without pay during the government shutdown, leading to delays.
The US president announces he is adding 10% to current levies on one of the biggest US trading partners.
Donald Trump has claimed to have ended another war, this time between Thailand and Cambodia. But what does this latest agreement actually amount to?
The Treasury Secretary says the US has enough for the next military payday, but can’t pay service members after that.
Here’s what you should know as the US president arrives for a whirlwind week of diplomacy.