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“Oh God,” came the weary response, followed by a sigh, and then, “Oh God,” again.
This reaction occurred as a senior Conservative confided that the party might yet navigate its current predicament, only for news to break of another defection to Reform UK. The prevailing sentiment?
A resigned acknowledgement of yet another departure.
While the individual exit of Sarah Atherton, a former defence minister during the Conservative tenure, is noteworthy, it is not unique. Over a dozen Conservative MPs or former MPs have made similar transitions. The pertinent question for the Conservatives this weekend is: what, if anything, still holds them together?
It is no secret that the Conservatives are facing a crisis of popularity. The aftermath of the last election was anticipated to be challenging, compounded by 14 years in power and the revolving door of five prime ministers. However, the party’s standing has deteriorated even further since then.
The new leadership under Kemi Badenoch has not yielded any significant resurgence. The party has failed to capitalize on the government’s missteps. For an organization once regarded as a paragon of political strategy in the Western world, the situation is dire.
Technically, the Tories remain the primary opposition party, a position that carries status and influence. Badenoch has the opportunity to question the prime minister weekly. The Conservatives are traditionally the first to respond to government announcements. Their parliamentary representation far exceeds that of the Liberal Democrats, the SNP, Reform, and the Greens.
However, politically, they do not project the image of the government’s primary challenger. This is partly attributable to the substantial losses incurred in July 2024, which necessitate a period of recovery.
It is also a consequence of their low poll numbers and the government’s deliberate strategy of framing arguments against Reform, rather than the Conservatives.
As another senior party figure observes, Labour’s strategy of “cutting the Tories out is the right one”.
It is advantageous for Labour and the Lib Dems to marginalize the Tories. Many Conservatives argue that Badenoch “just hasn’t generated any traction, any attention” during her leadership.
As the Conservatives convene in Manchester for their conference, in the shadow of the attack on Heaton Park synagogue, their primary objective is to command attention. The Tory party may be fighting for its very relevance.
Like it or not, as Sir Keir Starmer has experienced, struggling parties tend to scrutinize their leader. Badenoch has garnered support within the Conservative Party for her outspoken stance on issues such as single-sex spaces, free speech, and her assertion that some cultures are “less valid” than others. Some colleagues commend her direct communication style.
However, politics also requires charm and empathy. A senior Tory stated that after the election defeat, the party needed to “go everywhere and do a mea culpa, to listen and take a kicking”. The issue with Badenoch, they say, is “she is grand… hasn’t been anywhere and isn’t listening to anyone”. A harsh assessment.
As the conference approaches, it is almost a Tory tradition to fill the media with complaints about the party leader. Badenoch has delivered more effective performances at Prime Minister’s Questions. Policies are being developed, and funding continues to flow. One of her supporters maintains that while she is still “finding her way”, she possesses some of the same “strength and character as a young Margaret Thatcher”.
Thatcher was initially perceived as “strange and shrill” but went on to become the party’s most successful leader in modern times. However, as Badenoch approaches her first anniversary as leader, fewer people are willing to draw that comparison.
Regardless of Badenoch’s personal attributes, a party veteran suggests that “there is just no pace, no nimbleness” in her approach.
Perhaps this should have been evident from the outset, as her initial pitch for the leadership was “Renewal 2030” – a date beyond the next general election.
In numerous interviews, Badenoch has stated her desire to carefully consider the party’s direction and develop credible ideas, rather than rushing into decisions. Expect a series of policy announcements in the coming days.
However, politics is a fast-paced environment, and another source agrees that pace is a problem, stating: “What she misunderstood is you get one chance to introduce yourself to the public – she lost the chance to generate any traction and she won’t get that back.”
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has been eager to fill that “vacuum,” gaining strength in the polls and seizing headlines while the Tories formulate their plans.
It is not uncommon to hear Conservatives privately express the view that Badenoch’s tenure will be short-lived, speculating that she could be “out by Christmas” or “might not even have to be dragged out” if the party performs poorly in the upcoming elections in May.
Indeed, when asked this question directly in a pre-conference interview, she essentially responded: “Well, ask me then.”
Is this refreshing honesty from a leader who lacks full control of her own destiny? Or is it imprudent at a time when she should be consolidating her authority? The conference provides a platform for the party and its leader to demonstrate her capabilities.
As one senior MP states: “This conference is about her, and making it clear she has a direction and a sense of where she is going, and it is hers and she is going to lead it – we have this one chance.”
“We understand the polls aren’t great,” a source close to the party leadership adds. “There needs to be a bit of understanding from those who are grumbling.”
But what is Badenoch’s vision for the party?
“If I want a can of full fat coke, then I go and buy one, if I like what Reform are saying I’m gonna vote Reform, I’m not going to vote for a party that’s not quite there,” a party insider says.
Badenoch’s positions on climate change and the European Convention on Human Rights lean towards the right of the Conservative spectrum, mirroring the policies advocated by Reform.
Badenoch is a Brexiteer, a strong advocate of free speech, and frequently engages in culture wars. However, politics is a business, and many within the party believe she is targeting the wrong demographic and should focus on appealing to moderate liberals and conservatives, rather than Reform supporters.
“Frankly, the gap in the market is on the centre right,” one source says. Some of the current Tory leadership are eager to shift the focus to issues that may resonate with a broader range of voters, such as the economy.
One shadow minister says: “We have to talk about the money in your pocket and trying to articulate what all of Labour’s tax rises and debt means to you in terms of the cash in your pocket and the food in your fridge.”
With Reform UK gaining traction, one source questions whether they are the appropriate target for the Tories. Their presence on the right means the Conservatives can no longer assume their position as the second-largest party. The party used to be “free to carry on in opposition in our own space – now when the party looks for who its enemy is, is it Labour, Reform or Lib Dems, or it doesn’t know?”.
According to one source close to the party leadership, in recent years people have struggled to know what the party stands for: “We have flip-flopped, criss-crossed, gone from [Theresa] May to [Boris] Johnson, to [Rishi] Sunak.”
Significant announcements outlining Badenoch’s position will be made in the coming days, “and it will be the job of MPs and councils and everyone to go and sell that message”.
As party members and associates converge in Manchester, the current leadership faces significant challenges. Polling data indicates that Badenoch’s net satisfaction ratings are lower than those of John Major, William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith, David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Rishi Sunak. (Liz Truss was excluded due to her brief tenure.)
“I don’t remember it ever being this bad,” says one insider, suggesting not just that Badenoch’s time will be up before too long, but also that the party has been hollowed out of experience and knowledge, and many of the big-name MPs who have stuck around have, frankly, rather checked out.
However, one of Badenoch’s backers suggests it’s the party, not the leadership, that ought to have a word with itself. They told me their colleagues have got a “messiah complex – ever since Margaret they think there is a leader out there who will lead them to the promised land”.
In other words, get your heads down, get your work done, and stop thinking it’s all about the person at the top.
“We need to understand real history, not folk history,” they say, suggesting a new leader would not and could not solve the party’s problems on their own. Do it again, and a frontbencher suggests “people will think, ‘Oh God, they haven’t changed!'”
But the overall picture for the Tories’ top team is as foul as the weather in Manchester which awaits them. “They’re not relevant, they don’t matter – that is the big thing the current team have not understood,” one Tory source worries.
“If it’s not resolved soon it’s easy to see how we might be in third or even fourth place” when it gets to the next election, they add.
Not for the first time, you don’t need me to remind you – but I will – that politics in the 2020s is a very unpredictable era. There are known unknowns. Might Badenoch pull off a blinding speech this week? Will Labour be patient with Sir Keir until the general election? Will Reform hold together? Will the economy improve? And unknown unknowns that we can’t list right now.
And anyone who claims to know what’s next may as well be trying to sell ice to an Eskimo.
The Conservative party has been pronounced more or less gone before. There was even a book published titled “The Strange Death of Tory England”. Five years later, David Cameron strolled into No 10.
But the party is in trouble. Conferences are always an opportunity for political parties, but also a risk. The pressure is on the Tories to show they matter in the next few days, or more on their own side may wonder what they’re for.
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Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch speaks to the BBC ahead of her party’s upcoming conference.
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Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has mistakenly said Northern Ireland “voted to leave” the European Union.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch says her party would axe legally binding targets to cut emissions.
The Conservative leader is promising immigration policy announcements in its Manchester conference.
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