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Sir Keir Starmer is anticipated to announce the United Kingdom’s recognition of a Palestinian state in a statement scheduled for Sunday afternoon.
The expected move follows Prime Minister Starmer’s July declaration that the UK would consider shifting its position by September, contingent upon Israel meeting specific conditions. These included agreeing to a ceasefire in Gaza and committing to a sustainable, long-term peace agreement that delivers a two-state solution.
This development represents a significant potential shift in British foreign policy, diverging from the stance of previous governments that recognition should occur as part of a peace process and at a moment of maximum impact.
The prospective move has elicited strong criticism from the Israeli government, families of hostages held in Gaza, and factions within the Conservative Party.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has previously asserted that such recognition would “reward terror.”
However, UK ministers contend that there is a moral imperative to act in order to sustain the hope for a lasting peace accord.
Government sources have indicated that the situation on the ground has deteriorated considerably in recent weeks, citing images depicting starvation and violence in Gaza, conditions previously described by the Prime Minister as “intolerable.”
Israel’s recent ground operation in Gaza City, which a UN official characterized as “cataclysmic,” has reportedly forced the displacement of hundreds of thousands of individuals.
Earlier this week, a United Nations commission of inquiry concluded that Israel had committed acts of genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, a claim Israel has dismissed as “distorted and false.”
Ministers have also emphasized the ongoing expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, deemed illegal under international law, as a key factor influencing the decision to recognize Palestinian statehood.
Justice Secretary David Lammy, who served as foreign secretary in July when the path to recognition was announced, cited the controversial E1 settlement project, which critics warn would undermine the prospects for a viable, contiguous Palestinian state.
He stated: “The recognition of a Palestinian state is as a consequence of the serious expansion that we’re seeing in the West Bank, the settler violence that we’re seeing in the West Bank, and the intention and indications that we’re seeing to build for example the E1 development that would run a coach and horses through the possibility of a two-state solution.”
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas reportedly welcomed the UK’s pledge of recognition during a recent visit with Sir Keir, with Downing Street stating that both leaders agreed Hamas should have no role in the future governance of Palestine.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has affirmed her support for a two-state solution in the Middle East.
However, in a weekend article in *The Telegraph*, she argued that “it is obvious, and the US has been clear on this, that recognition of a Palestinian state at this time and without the release of the hostages, would be a reward for terrorism.”
Similarly, in an open letter to Sir Keir on Saturday, family members of some of the hostages taken by Hamas urged the Prime Minister not to proceed until the remaining 48 hostages, of whom 20 are believed to be alive, have been released.
The announcement of the impending recognition has “dramatically complicated efforts to bring home our loved ones,” they wrote, adding that “Hamas has already celebrated the UK’s decision as a victory and reneged on a ceasefire deal.”
During a state visit to the UK this week, US President Donald Trump also conveyed his disagreement with the recognition.
Sir Keir had previously set a deadline coinciding with the UN General Assembly meeting this week, for Israel to take “substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza, agree to a ceasefire and commit to a long-term, sustainable peace, reviving the prospect of a two-state solution.”
Speaking in July, he stated, “I’ve always said we will recognise a Palestinian state as a contribution to a proper peace process, at the moment of maximum impact for the two-state solution.”
“With that solution now under threat, this is the moment to act.”
Several other nations, including Portugal, France, Canada, and Australia, have also signaled their intention to recognize a Palestinian state, while Spain, Ireland, and Norway formally took that step last year.
Palestine is currently recognized by approximately 75% of the UN’s 193 member states, but lacks internationally agreed-upon boundaries, a designated capital, and a formal army, rendering recognition largely symbolic.
The two-state solution envisions the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, with East Jerusalem as its capital. Israel currently occupies both the West Bank and Gaza, meaning the Palestinian Authority does not exercise full control over its territory or population.
Recognizing a Palestinian state has long been a cause championed by many within the Labour Party. The Prime Minister has faced increasing pressure to adopt a firmer stance on Israel, particularly from Members of Parliament on the left wing of his party.
Prior to his July speech, more than half of Labour MPs signed a letter advocating for the government to immediately recognize a Palestinian state.
Conversely, critics have questioned why the government appeared to impose conditions on Israel but not on Hamas, in outlining its path to recognition.
The Chief Rabbi, Sir Ephraim Mirvis, has called on the government to reconsider its decision.
“The intended recognition is not contingent upon a functioning or democratic Palestinian government, nor even upon the most basic commitment to a peaceful future,” he stated.
“Astonishingly, it is not even conditional upon the release of the 48 hostages who remain in captivity.”
Government sources have maintained that their demands for Hamas to release the hostages and agree to a ceasefire remain unchanged.
However, officials in the Foreign Office have argued that statehood is an inherent right of the Palestinian people and should not be contingent upon the actions of Hamas, which the government considers a terrorist organization.
Speaking on Thursday during a meeting with President Trump at Chequers, Sir Keir reiterated that Hamas could play “no part” in any future Palestinian state.
The Israeli military initiated its Gaza campaign in response to the unprecedented Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, which resulted in approximately 1,200 fatalities and the taking of 251 hostages.
At least 64,964 people have been killed in Israeli attacks in Gaza since then, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.
Several countries are expected to officially recognise a Palestinian state in the coming days.
The army says the attacker was driving a truck transporting humanitarian aid from Jordan.
Bezalel Smotrich, an ultranationalist who has been sanctioned by the UK and others, said he was in discussion with the US over the idea.
Israel says its aim is to defeat up to 3,000 Hamas fighters who remain there, but the offensive has drawn international condemnation.
The conflict between Israel and the Palestinian people is one of the longest-running in the world.
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