Norwegians are heading to the polls this Sunday and Monday in a closely contested election that will determine whether the nation continues under a Labour-led government or shifts toward the center-right.
This founding member of NATO, which shares an Arctic border with Russia and participates in the EU’s single market without being a member state, has only four million registered voters.
Despite its relatively small population, Norway has historically held significant influence on the global stage, and international issues such as the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, as well as US trade tariffs, have played a notable role in the election campaign.
However, as the election nears its conclusion, the primary focus has shifted to the rising cost of living and economic inequality.
“Public spending, schools, infrastructure, railway development, and road construction are the key issues,” according to Andreas, a father of a young child.
This domestic emphasis was particularly evident during Norway’s annual summer political festival held last month in the town of Arendal.
Each year, Norway’s political figures, business leaders, union representatives, and members of the public gather on the southeastern coast for a series of panel discussions and meetings. This year’s event commenced with a nationally televised election debate featuring all the major political leaders.
Among them was Labour Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, 65, who is seeking a second term after eight years of Conservative governance concluded in 2021.
He faces a challenge from a coalition consisting of two conservative parties: the right-wing populist Progress Party, led by Sylvi Listhaug, 47, which has gained popularity, and the Høyre party of former Prime Minister Erna Solberg, which aims to regain power.
One of the most contentious topics of the campaign has been the future of the 1% wealth tax, which applies to Norwegians whose assets exceed 1.76 million Norwegian kroner (£130,000; $175,000), although certain discounts are available, covering up to three-quarters of the value of a primary residence.
In recent years, hundreds of wealthy Norwegians have reportedly left the country for Switzerland, citing the nation’s high taxes as a primary reason.
The question is whether this exodus can be reversed.
Sylvi Listhaug has advocated for the complete elimination of the wealth tax, along with other tax cuts, while Solberg’s conservatives seek to abolish the wealth tax on what they term “working capital,” such as shares.
Labour has resisted such drastic measures but has pledged a comprehensive review of the taxation system. Jens Stoltenberg, the former NATO chief now overseeing finance, has cautioned against creating a tax structure that could result in the wealthiest Norwegians paying little to no tax.
Opinion polls leading up to the election have indicated Labour in the lead, followed by Listhaug’s Progress Party and the Conservatives, boosted in part by the “Stoltenberg effect.”
However, should the center-right coalition prevail, a major question will be which of the two party leaders would assume the role of prime minister.
Solberg, 67, who served as prime minister for eight years, has so far rejected the possibility of her populist rival taking office before her, implying that voters may view Listhaug as too polarizing a figure.
Foreign policy has remained a consistent presence in the election campaign, with recent weeks dominated by a decision by Norway’s sovereign wealth fund – the world’s largest – to divest from nearly half of its Israeli holdings due to alleged human rights violations.
The $1.9 trillion (£1.4 trillion) fund, accumulated over decades from Norway’s vast oil and gas resources, is managed by the central bank but must adhere to ethical guidelines.
Amid political pressures stemming from the Gaza conflict, the fund’s chief executive, Nicolai Tangen, has described the recent decisions as “my worst-ever crisis.”
While Norway is a member of NATO, it has never joined the European Union.
It does have access to the EU’s single market through its membership in the European Economic Area, obligating it to respect EU regulations. It is also part of the EU’s border-free Schengen zone.
Russia’s war in Ukraine may have strengthened Norway’s ties with its European neighbors on various levels, but the question of EU membership has received little attention during the election campaign, as parties are hesitant to alienate voters on such a divisive issue.
“There remains a significant ‘no vote’ in Norway, so the voters are not there,” noted journalist Fredrik Solvang, one of the moderators of the TV debate in Arendal.
For Solberg’s conservatives, actively pursuing EU membership is a core policy objective, contingent upon a referendum.
“It’s not a focal point of this election campaign,” she told the BBC. “And, of course, until we see a clearer movement toward a majority favoring EU membership, none of us will initiate a new debate about the referendum.”
“The Labour Party has historically been pro-EU, but it’s not a topic on the agenda today,” said Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide.
“I’m not ruling out the possibility of it happening in the future if major events occur, but right now, my mandate as foreign minister is to maintain the relationship as effectively as possible.”
One segment of the TV debate in Arendal involved a confrontation between party leaders from the same side of the political spectrum.
When two parties on the center-right – the Liberals, who support joining the EU, and the Christian Democrats, who oppose it – were asked to choose between the EU or Pride flags in schools, they opted to discuss flags instead.
“Given the current geopolitical situation, we face an uncertain future, and I believe we need to take the discussion seriously,” said Iver Hoen, a nurse.
Christina Stuyck, who holds both Norwegian and Spanish citizenship, concurred.
“I believe Norwegian politics often acts as if it exists on a separate island, unaffected by the rest of the world, but it clearly is.”
Norway’s political system comprises 19 electoral constituencies based on proportional representation, and no single party can govern alone.
To secure a majority in the 169-seat Storting, a coalition requires 85 seats, and minority governments have long been commonplace in Norway.
Støre’s Labour Party formed a minority government with the Centre Party after the last election, but the two-party coalition dissolved in January due to a dispute over EU energy policies.
The center-right bloc also faces internal disagreements, suggesting that this election may not produce a clear majority when votes are tallied on Monday evening.
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