“`html
Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has affirmed his intention to remain in office, despite projections indicating that his ruling coalition is poised to lose its majority in the upper house of parliament.
Voters participated in Sunday’s closely contested election amidst growing discontent with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito, stemming from concerns over rising prices and the potential for US tariffs.
In remarks made after the polls closed, the Prime Minister acknowledged the “harsh result” with solemnity, but emphasized his continued focus on ongoing trade negotiations.
Having already lost its majority in the more powerful lower house last year, this expected defeat would further weaken the coalition’s political standing.
The coalition requires 50 seats to maintain control of the 248-seat upper chamber, with an exit poll from public broadcaster NHK suggesting a potential win of between 32 and 51 seats.
On Sunday, NHK projected that it “may be difficult for the ruling coalition to maintain their majority”.
Half of the upper chamber’s seats were contested in Sunday’s election, with elected members serving six-year terms.
A result of less than 46 seats for the coalition would represent its worst performance since its formation in 1999.
Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer in Japanese Studies at Kanda University of International Studies, noted to BBC News that the rise of more right-wing parties had eroded the LDP’s conservative support base.
“Prime Minister Ishiba is considered not conservative enough by many supporters of the former Prime Minister [Shinzo] Abe,” he stated.
“They think that he just doesn’t have the nationalistic views on history, he doesn’t have the strong views against China that Abe had.”
Shinzo Abe previously led the LDP and holds the record as Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, holding office in two separate periods between 2006-2007 and 2012-2020.
Mr. Hall added that some of the party’s support had shifted towards the Sanseito party, which is now voicing opinions “that haven’t been said in public before by members of the upper house,” highlighting the party’s inclination towards “conspiracy theories, anti-foreign statements, [and] very strong revisionist views about history”.
Ishiba’s centre-right party has been a dominant force in Japanese politics since 1955, albeit with frequent leadership changes.
The anticipated outcome reflects voter dissatisfaction with Ishiba, who has struggled to foster confidence amidst Japan’s challenges with economic headwinds, a cost-of-living crisis, and ongoing trade negotiations with the United States.
Public discontent has also been fueled by inflation, particularly the rising price of rice, and a series of political scandals that have plagued the LDP in recent years.
Historically, the last three LDP premiers who lost a majority in the upper house resigned within two months, and analysts have suggested that a significant loss in this election could lead to a similar outcome.
This scenario could open the door for potential leadership bids from other prominent LDP figures, including Sanae Takaichi, who finished second to Ishiba in last year’s leadership election; Takayuki Kobayashi, a former economic security minister; and Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
Regardless, a change in leadership within the ruling party would likely trigger political upheaval and destabilize Japan’s government at a crucial juncture in US-Japan trade discussions.
Support for the ruling coalition appears to have been eroded by candidates from the small, right-leaning Sanseito party, which has attracted conservative votes with its “Japanese First”, anti-immigration rhetoric.
Sanseito initially gained traction on YouTube during the Covid-19 pandemic, disseminating conspiracy theories about vaccinations and a cabal of global elites.
The fringe party’s nativist rhetoric broadened its appeal ahead of Sunday’s vote, as policies concerning foreign residents and immigration became central themes in many parties’ campaigns.
Known for its insular culture and stringent immigration policies, the island nation has experienced a record surge in both tourists and foreign residents in recent years.
This influx has contributed to rising prices for Japanese citizens and fostered a sentiment among some that foreigners are exploiting the country, exacerbating existing discontent.
Against this backdrop, Ishiba launched a task force last week aimed at addressing “crimes or nuisance behaviours committed by some foreign nationals”, including issues related to immigration, land acquisitions, and unpaid social insurance.
Minister Maria Miller cuts the ribbon at the international programme’s headquarters in Reading.
“Everyone’s exhausted. We just want it to stop,” says one resident of the Tokara islands.
It would be well above the 24% tariff imposed on Japan as part of the so-called “Liberation Day” in April.
It imposed the ban in 2023 over Japan’s release of treated waste water from the Fukushima nuclear plant.
Serving strawberries in a sandwich might sound unusual in the UK, but it’s nothing new in Japan.
“`