A popular Hungarian saying warns: “Visszanyal a fagyi,” or, “The ice cream licks back.” In essence, it cautions that what one relishes consuming may, in turn, consume them.
For two decades, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has rigorously challenged liberal ideologies, transforming his nation into what he has termed an “illiberal democracy” and a bastion of “Christian liberty.”
His approach has garnered admirers worldwide, including U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has lauded Orban as “smart” and “a tough person.”
“One of the most respected men, they call him a strong man,” Trump remarked in September 2024.
Ahead of Hungary’s next election in April 2026, the LGBTQ community appears to be a focal point of Orban’s policies. His Fidesz party recently endorsed a law seeking to prohibit Pride events. Yet, last month saw between 100,000 and 200,000 participants, a significant increase from 35,000 the previous year.
Observing the massive demonstrations in Budapest celebrating gay pride, free speech, and the right to assemble—all in defiance of the ban—raises the question: Could liberal values be poised for a resurgence?
In some respects, this is the wrong question. Orban’s authority is indeed facing challenges, but not necessarily from the expected sources or in the anticipated manner.
The real threat stems not from the liberal left, but from the center-right.
Peter Magyar, a 44-year-old former member of Orban’s inner circle, emerged as a surprise challenger in February 2024.
This development followed a scandal involving the pardon of a man convicted of concealing child sexual abuse, leading to the resignation of President Katalin Novak on live television. Justice Minister Judit Varga (Magyar’s ex-wife) also resigned, and the scandal undermined Orban’s claims of upholding traditional family values.
Magyar gave a lengthy interview to Partizan, a prominent opposition YouTube channel, denouncing the alleged nepotism and corruption within the ruling party.
Robert Puzser, an opposition activist leading the Citizens Resistance initiative, notes that Magyar is proceeding cautiously, amidst efforts by Fidesz officials and certain media outlets to portray him as a liberal or leftist.
Magyar is reportedly attempting to avoid alienating his conservative base in rural areas, which had long been Orban’s stronghold. He has also crafted a compelling narrative of a Hungary in decline.
Most national polls indicate that Tisza, Hungary’s main opposition party led by Magyar, holds a lead of 9% to 18% over Orban’s party. Only one poll, from the pro-government Viewpoint Institute, suggests Fidesz remains narrowly ahead.
Magyar and his party are leveraging the dire conditions of state hospitals, schools, and railways against Orban. Orban’s well-established strategy, once admired internationally, appears to be faltering at home, bringing Hungary closer than ever to potentially unseating a leader who has governed for the past 15 years.
Orban has been in power for 19 of the 35 years since the fall of Communism in 1990, making him one of the most experienced leaders in the EU. In the early 1990s, Fidesz shifted away from its liberal origins, and Orban established a new conservative, nationalist, right-wing identity.
In 2015, as many individuals sought asylum in Europe, Orban characterized them as part of “a migratory movement composed of economic migrants, refugees and also foreign fighters.” He has opposed military support for Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, and also opposes Ukraine’s bid for EU membership.
A cornerstone of Orban’s strategy has been his ability to identify and address the fears of his voters, which proved effective in his landslide victories in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022.
A public opinion survey by the Publicus agency from June 23-25 revealed that 45% of people supported the Pride march in Budapest, while 48% opposed it. However, only 8% of Fidesz voters approved, making it a rallying point for his base.
Since the march, Fidesz supporters have circulated provocative images from Budapest Pride, including nudity and the arrest of a man for public masturbation.
Following the event, folk singer Marianna Majorosi, whose song was featured in a drag queen show at Pride, expressed her distress that she had “no right to prevent someone from doing this to my voice.” Orban conveyed his support for her on Facebook.
In 2022, the government organized a referendum on child protection concurrent with the general election. The questions included: “Do you support allowing children in public schools to participate in sexual orientation classes without parental consent?” And, “do you support the promotion of gender reassignment for minors?”
Approximately 3.7 million Hungarians participated, with the overwhelming majority voting “No.” Government officials have since cited the referendum as evidence of Hungarian opposition to the values associated with Pride.
Another key aspect of Orban’s strategy is a winner-takes-all approach. After losing power in 2002, Orban returned to office in 2010. In 2011, a new electoral law reduced the size of Parliament from 386 seats to 199 and eliminated the second round of elections, effectively consolidating votes for the strongest party.
While fragmented opposition parties competed for limited gains, Fidesz secured the majority. In 2014, they received 45% of the vote, which translated to 67% of the parliamentary seats. The previous proportional representation system was replaced with a system closer to the first-past-the-post system, similar to that used in the UK.
He has also appointed judges sympathetic to Fidesz to the Constitutional and Supreme Court.
In 2014, he stated that the “illiberal state” he was building “does not reject the fundamental principles of liberalism such as freedom… but it does not make this ideology the central element of state organization.”
Orban continues to refine his vision. András Lánczi, a philosopher considered a key intellectual influence on the prime minister, describes it as “political realism… Ideas based on experience rather than the utopias and moralizing that leftists like so much.”
Orban governs by utilizing simple, concise messages derived from unpublished opinion surveys commissioned by his government to identify public concerns. These messages are then amplified through pro-government media, social media, and nationwide billboard campaigns.
Some international leaders appear to admire his approach, while many MAGA Republicans commend Orban for challenging “woke” culture.
The prime ministers of Slovakia and Georgia also seem to be strong admirers, as are Alice Weidel (Alternative for Germany), Geert Wilders (Dutch Party for Freedom), and Herbert Kickl (Austrian Freedom Party).
Orban has instilled in his compatriots “a new self-confidence,” according to Mr. Lánczi, following centuries of foreign rule. “This nation has become stronger, and we would like to believe that we are not inferior to any other nations.”
Yet, as his international profile rises, his domestic support appears to be eroding.
Peter Magyar has been traveling the country extensively, criticizing the government for the conditions in hospitals, the failing rail network, and public service wages that are among the lowest in Europe.
He attracts large crowds, and his visits to hospitals, schools, or care homes are broadcast live on Facebook, often drawing tens of thousands of viewers.
“We will re-build this country together, brick by brick,” Magyar consistently states. “Brick by brick!” the crowds respond in unison.
Fidesz publicists have dismissed him as a shallow “messiah” or a traitor from within their ranks. However, Magyar has presented the public with an alternative vision of restoring the homeland.
Orban has also made some missteps, such as supporting the ultra-nationalist candidate George Simion in the recent Romanian presidential election, despite Simion’s history of anti-Hungarian remarks. He viewed Simion as a potential ally in the European Parliament, where they share the belief that “Christian Europe” is under threat. However, Simion unexpectedly lost in the second round of the election.
Orban’s failure to prevent Pride, after assuring his supporters it would not occur, also suggests a potential weakening of his authority.
Perhaps most critically, the Hungarian economy, heavily reliant on the German market, particularly German cars manufactured in Hungary, is stagnating. Orban is no longer able to ensure an improved standard of living.
Even András Lánczi, who predicts Orban will win the next election, acknowledges: “Unavoidably, there are so many conflicts during such a long time [in power],” conflicts that “erode trust, erode respect, erode a lot of positive things that unite that political community.”
Defeat for Orban, who has ruled Hungary for the past 15 years, would be a momentous event.
“Orban is able to mobilize his core electorate, which is about two million people, but it’s not enough to win the elections,” says Zoltan Kiszelly, a political analyst close to Fidesz.
The Tisza party also now commands approximately two million supporters. Over five million Hungarians voted in the 2022 election, with a 69% turnout, suggesting that the election in April 2026 will likely be determined by the currently undecided voters.
“We are looking for policy issues that can attract these 500,000 to one million more voters who are needed to outnumber the opposition,” Mr. Kiszelly explained.
In 2022, amidst the war in Ukraine, Orban portrayed himself as the “peace” candidate, asserting that the opposition would draw Hungary into the conflict. This proved to be a successful tactic in a country with a history of being invaded by foreign armies. Mr. Kiszelly believes that Ukraine could again help Orban win in 2026.
However, if the war in Ukraine concludes by then, Orban “the political realist” could claim credit as the Western leader who warned that Ukraine could not defeat Russia. Alternatively, if the war persists, Fidesz could intensify its campaign against Manfred Weber, leader of the European People’s Party (EPP), which supports continued Western military aid to Ukraine.
“Orban can present himself, once again, as the dove of peace,” Mr. Kiszelly explains.
Orban also portrays his positive relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin as a guarantee of inexpensive Russian gas and oil for Hungarian consumers, constantly threatened by EU sanctions against Russia. (Although Orban has not successfully blocked any of the 18 packages of EU sanctions against Russia thus far.)
But his opponents hope that Tisza, and Magyar, can maintain their polling lead. Mr. Puzser, the opposition activist, believes Tisza will win “sooner or later”.
He describes Hungary as being at a crossroads. “There is a path leading to a democratic transition from this semi-authoritarian, semi-constitutional system,” he argues, “and there is a despotic path leading to a dictatorship.”
As for Orban, he said in March that there was a struggle “for the soul of the Western world” – some see next April’s election as a battle for the soul of Hungary.
Top image credits: Anna Moneymaker/ Leon Neal/ Pierre Crom via Getty
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