After years marked by border disputes, India and China appear to be gradually working towards a normalization of relations, though significant challenges and mutual suspicions persist.
The recent visits to China by two senior Indian officials have been interpreted as a positive signal indicating a potential thaw in bilateral engagements.
In June, India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh also undertook separate visits to China for meetings related to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
The SCO, a Eurasian security alliance comprising 10 members including China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan, facilitated Singh’s visit, which marked the first such engagement by a high-ranking Indian official to China in five years.
A key source of India-China tensions lies in their undefined 3,440km (2,100-mile) border. The terrain, characterized by rivers, lakes, and snow-capped mountains, results in frequent shifts in the perceived boundary line, leading to close encounters between soldiers and occasional skirmishes.
Tensions sharply escalated in June 2020, when forces clashed in the Galwan Valley in Ladakh, resulting in the first fatal confrontation since 1975, with at least 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers losing their lives. Subsequent stand-offs have occurred in various locations.
However, geopolitical realities and on-the-ground necessities appear to have prompted both nations to seek common ground on several fronts.
Late last year, India and China reached an agreement on key points of contention in Ladakh.
In January, Delhi and Beijing agreed to reinstate direct flights and ease visa restrictions that were implemented following the 2020 clash.
That same month, Indian pilgrims were permitted to visit Mount Kailash, a sacred mountain, and a holy lake in the Tibet Autonomous Region, after a six-year hiatus.
Experts, however, emphasize that obstacles remain.
China is India’s second-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $127 billion (£93.4 billion) last year. India relies heavily on Chinese imports, particularly rare earth minerals.
Peace in the border regions is thus essential for fostering economic ties.
With its increasing focus on Taiwan, Beijing also desires stability along its Himalayan border with India, at least for the time being.
At a strategic level, China harbors suspicions that Western countries are using India to counterbalance its ascent and expanding influence.
Therefore, in addition to resolving the border dispute, Beijing seeks progress in other areas as well, hoping to mitigate Delhi’s growing reliance on the U.S. and its allies for security.
This includes increased Chinese exports, greater investment in India, and the lifting of visa restrictions for Chinese engineers and workers. (India banned numerous Chinese apps and restricted Chinese investments after the 2020 clash, citing security concerns).
Rapidly evolving geopolitics, particularly in the U.S., have also encouraged Delhi to engage with China, according to experts.
“India believed it would be a very close strategic ally [of the U.S.], but it was not receiving the level of support it expected from Washington,” Professor Christopher Clary of the University of Albany in New York told the BBC.
During recent border tensions with Pakistan in May, Delhi also observed growing military cooperation between Beijing and Islamabad, with Pakistan deploying Chinese-made fighter jets, air defense systems, and air-to-air missiles.
Following the conflict, Trump repeatedly claimed to have mediated between the two sides for a ceasefire.
This embarrassed Delhi, which insists that it directly engaged with Pakistani officials to halt the fighting and vehemently denies any third-party mediation.
Weeks later, Trump hosted Pakistani army chief Asim Munir for lunch at the White House, much to Delhi’s dismay.
Concurrently, the U.S. and India are engaged in intensive talks to reach a trade agreement. Trump has threatened to impose reciprocal tariffs on several countries, including India, if a deal is not reached by August 1.
“Given President Trump’s statements about mediation between India and Pakistan and about the trade talks, there is a sentiment in Delhi that this is the time to reach out to countries like China,” Clary stated.
Strategic experts argue that Washington views Delhi as a bulwark against an increasingly assertive China. However, given the U.S. president’s unpredictability, doubts have emerged in Delhi regarding the extent to which the U.S. would support India in any future conflict with China.
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue – known as the Quad – involving the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India, has taken a back seat during the Trump administration’s second term.
“In recent years, China has significantly increased its influence in other multilateral organizations, such as the SCO and the BRICS grouping of emerging economies,” noted Phunchok Stobdan, a former senior Indian diplomat.
India is thus adopting a pragmatic approach, he suggested.
“At the same time, it does not want to be seen as yielding too much to Chinese demands for domestic reasons,” he added.
Beyond the U.S., India is also closely monitoring Russia’s alignment with Beijing, driven by the war in Ukraine, which has impacted its long-standing alliance and role as a major weapons supplier.
Western sanctions in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have heightened Moscow’s dependence on China for energy exports.
Moscow also relies on Beijing for crucial imports and investments, causing concern in Delhi regarding the Kremlin’s position in any future confrontation involving China.
China is leveraging its industrial strength to exert pressure on nations that rely on its imports, and countries like India fear that these restrictions could impede their economic growth.
“China has recently been employing trade as a tool against India, suspending critical exports such as rare earth magnets and fertilizers, which could adversely affect India’s manufacturing and agricultural sectors,” Mr. Stobdan explained.
Rare earth magnets are particularly vital for the automotive, appliance, and clean energy sectors. China imposed import restrictions starting in April, requiring companies to obtain permits.
An Indian automobile industry association has warned that production could be severely affected if the restrictions are not eased promptly. Following these concerns, the Indian government has stated that it is engaged in discussions with Beijing.
While China is eager to boost trade, it has not signaled any willingness to compromise on its other territorial disputes with India.
In recent years, China has increasingly asserted its claim over the entire northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which Beijing refers to as Southern Tibet.
Delhi maintains that Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of India, emphasizing that its residents regularly participate in elections to choose their state government, leaving no room for compromise.
“If China and India do not abandon the concept of sovereignty, they will continue to struggle indefinitely. If they can reach an agreement on Southern Tibet [Arunachal Pradesh], the two countries could achieve lasting peace,” Professor Shen Dingli of Fudan University in Shanghai told the BBC.
For now, both Delhi and Beijing recognize that their territorial dispute is unlikely to be resolved soon.
They appear willing to establish a mutually beneficial working relationship, aiming to avoid tensions and eschewing reliance on any global power bloc for support.
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