European champions England and world champions Spain are on a trajectory to potentially clash in the semi-finals of Euro 2025.
At Euro 2022, Chloe Kelly’s decisive extra-time goal at Wembley secured England’s first major title, capitalizing on their home advantage.
However, in the ever-evolving landscape of football, projections from Opta suggest that Spain, despite not advancing past the quarter-finals in 28 years, are the frontrunners to claim victory this summer.
According to Opta’s prediction model, the reigning world champions, who were defeated by the Lionesses in the 2022 quarter-finals, have a 25% probability of winning Euro 2025.
If successful, Spain would join Germany as the only women’s team to achieve consecutive World Cup and European Championship titles, emulating Germany’s impressive streak of five major tournament wins between 2001 and 2009.
The defending champions, England, are expected to be Spain’s primary challengers, with a 17% chance of retaining their title, according to projections.
Opta simulations indicate that the Lionesses reach the final in nearly a third of scenarios (29%), guided by Sarina Wiegman, who boasts a perfect record at the Women’s Euros, having won all 12 matches she has managed – six with the Netherlands in 2017 and six with England in 2022.
However, if both Spain and England top their respective groups, they are slated to meet in the semi-finals in Switzerland, potentially preventing a rematch of the 2023 World Cup final, which Spain won 1-0 in Sydney.
Opta’s prediction model assesses the likelihood of each match outcome – win, draw, or loss – by analyzing betting market odds and proprietary team rankings, factoring in historical and recent team performances, opponent strength, and the complexity of the path to the final.
The Opta predictor indicates a close contest between England (40%) and France (39%) for the top spot in Group D, with France ranking as the third overall favorite to win the Euros (16%).
France, despite omitting captain Wendie Renard and all-time leading goalscorer Eugenie le Sommer from their squad, have participated in 26 matches and won 11 at previous tournaments, the most among nations yet to reach a final.
Wales is poised to make their major tournament debut this summer, but are considered the least likely team to advance to the knockout stages, with only a 9% chance in projections.
Germany, an eight-time winner, is also projected to win the tournament in more than 6% of simulations, and are tipped to lead their group ahead of Sweden.
Historically, reigning champions have not lost their opening game at the subsequent tournament (W7, D5), and the Lionesses have secured victory in each of their last 14 group-stage matches at major tournaments, marking the longest such streak by a European nation.
England, the only team at Euro 2025 to have won their most recent encounter against each of their group opponents, is expected to make a promising start, potentially dispelling some of the pre-tournament negativity surrounding the squad.
Wiegman faces pressure to quickly stabilize the England camp following the departure of three key players just a month before the Euros.
Mary Earps (retired), Millie Bright (unavailable for selection), and Fran Kirby (not selected, then retired) will not participate in Switzerland, despite being integral to England’s unchanged starting XI from the first group stage game to the final in their 2022 triumph.
Hannah Hampton is set to be England’s primary goalkeeper for the tournament, a likely scenario even before Earps’ retirement.
The Chelsea goalkeeper, with 16 senior caps compared to Earps’ 53, started in 10 of England’s 16 games between the start of 2024 and Earps’ retirement at age 32.
Statistical analysis of competitive fixtures since the end of the 2023 World Cup suggests that Hampton is the appropriate choice as the Lionesses’ first-choice keeper.
During that period, Hampton has demonstrated a superior save rate (67.9% to 63%), kept more clean sheets (five to two), and conceded fewer goals than expected based on Opta’s expected goals-on-target model (1.4), while Earps conceded more than the model anticipated (-1.1).
The 24-year-old, who jointly won the 2024-25 Women’s Super League Golden Glove award, appears to be more trusted with her feet, averaging 36 passes per 90 minutes compared to Earps’ 29 per 90, although Earps recorded better passing accuracy (83.8% to 79.6%).
Squad turmoil preceding a major tournament is not unprecedented. Before Euro 2022, Wiegman excluded long-time captain Steph Houghton from England’s final squad, despite the defender’s recovery from an Achilles injury.
However, this did not seem to disrupt the team, as the Lionesses’ victory over Germany in the final extended their unbeaten run to 20 matches, later reaching 30 games. Wiegman’s first defeat as England manager came in April 2023 in game 31 – against Australia.
Since the start of the 2023 World Cup, England has lost seven times in 32 games, and underlying performance statistics have deteriorated.
England’s attack has seen a decrease in goals scored (4.3 to 2.4), fewer shots on goal (23.7 to 14.6), and a reduction in expected goals (xG) per game (3.4 to 2).
Defensively, the Lionesses are facing more shots (5.6 to 9.3), allowing opponents higher-quality chances (xGA 0.5 to 1.0), and conceding goals more frequently (0.4 to 1.0).
While England has maintained a similar level of possession under Wiegman, their off-the-ball statistics have also declined.
The team has recorded fewer high turnovers per game since the World Cup (17 to 13.1) and fewer shots from such situations (3 to 1.8).
However, with a head coach who has won the Women’s Euros with two different nations, and the only one to achieve this with a nation different from her home country, England remains a formidable opponent.
Alessia Russo, England’s in-form striker, scored the opening goal against world champions Spain earlier this month, albeit in a 2-1 defeat.
Russo shared the 2024-25 WSL Golden Boot with Manchester City’s Khadija Shaw, scoring 12 goals and netting more than any other Women’s Super League player across all competitions last season, with 20 goals.
Seven of those goals came in Arsenal’s successful Women’s Champions League campaign, the most by an English player in a single edition since 2009-10.
Since the start of qualification for Euro 2025 in April last year, Russo has scored five competitive goals for England, more than any other player.
Aitana Bonmati of Spain has been recognized as the world’s best player for the past two years, winning the women’s Ballon d’Or, and continues to perform at the highest level.
The 27-year-old led in chance creation from open play across Europe’s top five leagues (67) and the Women’s Champions League (30) in 2024-25, and ranked second in the two editions of the Women’s Nations League (25).
Clara Mateo of France enters the tournament in excellent form, directly contributing to 25 goals in 20 league games for Paris FC in 2024-25 (18 goals, seven assists), the most of any player in the French top flight.
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