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A second period of temperatures exceeding 30C before the end of June raises questions about its unusual nature and the extent of climate change’s influence.
Potential temperatures of 34C are forecast for Monday or Tuesday in south-east England.
These conditions stem from a persistent high-pressure system over Europe, often referred to as a heat dome.
Climate scientists emphasize that the intensity of this heat has undoubtedly been amplified by our warming climate.
While some may perceive these temperatures as typical for summer, it’s important to note that they are considerably lower than the record-breaking 40C temperatures experienced in the UK during July 2022.
However, it’s crucial to acknowledge the relative rarity of mid-thirties temperatures in the UK.
An analysis of Met Office data by the BBC reveals that highs of 35C or more occurred in one out of ten years during the latter half of the 20th century.
However, such heat is becoming increasingly common. Between 2015 and 2024, half of the years witnessed temperatures of 35C or above.
These temperatures are particularly noteworthy for June, which is typically the coolest month of summer.
“Recording 34C in June in the UK is a relatively rare event, with just a handful of days since the 1960s,” stated Dr. Amy Doherty, climate scientist at the Met Office.
The highest June temperatures on record were 35.6C in 1957 and 1976. Following closely are 2017 with a June high of 34.5C and 2019 with 34.0C.
Forecasts suggest that 2025 could approach these levels.
Furthermore, additional data from the Met Office indicates that the frequency of days exceeding 32C in the UK was more than three times higher during the decade of 2014-2023 compared to the period of 1961-1990.
It is well-documented that climate change is intensifying heatwaves and increasing their likelihood.
The burning of coal, oil, and gas, coupled with deforestation, releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
These gases trap heat, causing a warming effect on the Earth.
To date, human activities have caused the planet to warm by 1.36C above pre-industrial levels, as reported by scientists earlier this month month.
While this may seem like a small amount, even a modest increase in the Earth’s average temperature can significantly elevate the intensity of heat extremes.
Determining the precise contribution of climate change to the temperatures of this particular heatwave will require further analysis. However, scientists agree that it has undoubtedly played a role in boosting the warmth.
“We absolutely do not need to do an attribution study to know that this heatwave is hotter than it would have been without our continued burning of oil, coal and gas,” stated Dr. Friederike Otto, associate professor at Imperial College London.
“Countless studies have shown that climate change is an absolute game-changer when it comes to heat in Europe, making heatwaves much more frequent, especially the hottest ones, and more intense,” she added.
The scientific community is still actively researching the influence of climate change on the formation of heat domes, which are the immediate cause of the heatwave.
One hypothesis suggests that elevated temperatures in the Arctic, which has warmed at nearly four times the global average, are impacting the jet stream, a high-altitude band of fast-moving winds. This disruption may contribute to the increased likelihood of heat domes.
While this remains uncertain, the fundamental effect of a warming planet is to intensify heat domes when they do occur.
“What is crystal clear is that climate change is loading the dice such that when a heat dome does occur, it brings hotter and more dangerous temperatures,” said Dr. Michael Byrne, reader in climate science at the University of St Andrews.
As climate change progresses, heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and potentially reach even higher temperatures.
“The severity of summer heatwaves, but also extremes of dry as well as wet weather events, will continue to worsen until we rein in our greenhouse gas emissions and stabilise our warming climate,” stated Richard Allan, professor of climate science at the University of Reading.
Temperatures in the mid-thirties are more commonplace in other regions of the world.
However, the UK’s infrastructure, encompassing roads, railways, hospitals, and care homes, is often ill-equipped to handle such extreme heat.
The Climate Change Committee, the government’s independent advisor, has cautioned that a growing number of properties are likely to face the risk of overheating in the coming decades.
Furthermore, these risks are not uniformly distributed across the population.
“Air conditioning and other cooling systems become crucial to maintaining health, productivity and quality of life amidst rising temperatures,” said Dr. Radhika Khosla, associate professor at the University of Oxford.
“The most vulnerable – including older people, young children, and pregnant women – face the greatest risk,” added Dr. Madeleine Thomson, head of climate impacts and adaptation at the Wellcome Trust, a health charity.
“A 45C summer in the UK is now a near-term threat and we are dangerously unprepared.”
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