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Iran possesses the capacity to resume uranium enrichment, potentially for weapons-grade material, within “a matter of months,” according to the head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog.
Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated that recent U.S. strikes on Iranian sites inflicted significant, though “not total,” damage. This assessment contradicts claims by former President Donald Trump that Iran’s nuclear facilities were “totally obliterated.”
“Frankly speaking, one cannot claim that everything has disappeared and there is nothing there,” Grossi remarked on Saturday.
Israel conducted strikes on nuclear and military sites within Iran on June 13, alleging that Iran was nearing the development of a nuclear weapon.
Subsequently, the United States joined the strikes, targeting three Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan.
The full extent of the damage sustained by these facilities has remained unclear in the aftermath.
In an interview with CBS News, the BBC’s U.S. media partner, Grossi stated on Saturday that Tehran could have “in a matter of months… a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium.”
He further asserted that Iran retains the “industrial and technological capacities… so if they so wish, they will be able to start doing this again.”
The IAEA’s assessment aligns with earlier reports suggesting Iran’s nuclear capabilities remain viable. A leaked preliminary Pentagon assessment indicated that the U.S. strikes likely only delayed the program by several months.
However, future intelligence reports may present a revised assessment of the damage inflicted upon the facilities.
In response, Trump vehemently asserted that Iran’s nuclear sites were “completely destroyed” and accused the media of attempting “to demean one of the most successful military strikes in history.”
Currently, a ceasefire is in effect between Iran and Israel.
However, Trump has stated that he would “absolutely” consider further military action against Iran if intelligence indicated the nation was enriching uranium to concerning levels.
Iran’s armed forces chief of staff, Abdolrahim Mousavi, stated on Sunday that Tehran is not convinced Israel will adhere to the ceasefire.
“We did not start the war, but we have responded to the aggressor with all our power, and as we have serious doubts over the enemy’s compliance with its commitments including the ceasefire, we are ready to respond with force” if attacked again, Mousavi was quoted as saying by state TV.
Contradictory statements have emerged from Iranian officials regarding the extent of the damage.
In a speech on Thursday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei downplayed the significance of the strikes. Conversely, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi characterized the damage as “excessive and serious.”
Iran’s already strained relationship with the IAEA faced further challenges on Wednesday, when the Iranian parliament moved to suspend cooperation with the agency, accusing it of bias towards Israel and the United States.
Tehran has denied the IAEA’s request to inspect the damaged facilities. On Friday, Araghchi stated on X that “Grossi’s insistence on visiting the bombed sites under the pretext of safeguards is meaningless and possibly even malign in intent.”
The recent attacks by Israel and the U.S. followed an IAEA report last month that found Tehran to be in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years.
Iran maintains that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful, civilian purposes.
Despite Iran’s reluctance to cooperate, Grossi expressed hope for continued negotiations with Tehran.
“I have to sit down with Iran and look into this, because at the end of the day, this whole thing, after the military strikes, will have to have a long-lasting solution, which cannot be but a diplomatic one,” he stated.
Under the 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers, Iran was restricted from enriching uranium beyond 3.67% purity – the level suitable for commercial nuclear power plant fuel – and was prohibited from conducting any enrichment activities at its Fordo plant for a period of 15 years.
However, in 2018, then-President Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement, arguing that it inadequately addressed the potential for Iran to develop nuclear weapons. He subsequently reinstated U.S. sanctions.
In response, Iran progressively violated the agreement’s restrictions, particularly those pertaining to enrichment. It resumed enrichment activities at Fordo in 2021 and has reportedly amassed sufficient 60%-enriched uranium to potentially construct nine nuclear weapons, according to the IAEA.
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