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“Could the Conservatives face a fate similar to the Liberals of the 1920s, overtaken by Labour—but this time by the Reform Party?”
This intriguing, albeit niche, question is surprising given its source: a senior member of Kemi Badenoch’s team.
The shadow cabinet minister expressed optimism, emphasizing the often-cited resilience of the world’s most successful political party.
However, this sentiment isn’t universally shared. Many Conservative MPs openly contemplate the party’s demise, even though they were elected just last year.
Why? Since July’s devastating election results, leaving the Conservatives with their lowest ever MP count, their situation has only worsened.
The initial enthusiasm surrounding the leadership contest and the opportunity for renewal has given way to widespread despondency among Conservative MPs.
While few blame Kemi Badenoch directly, growing numbers within the party view her leadership as problematic.
“The situation is dire,” states a Conservative advisor. “Few of her supporters believe things are going well or anticipate her leading into the next general election.”
Another senior Conservative offers a more stark assessment: “The party faces a critical juncture: will it fight to win the next election or become a diminished, legacy party?”
These deeply pessimistic views stem from the bleak May local election results, a stark reminder of the party’s downward trajectory.
Initial predictions of widespread losses proved accurate, significantly worsened by the Reform UK party’s unexpected gains at the ballot box, confirming their recent surge in opinion polls.
The results highlighted the unprecedented challenge facing Badenoch’s leadership.
Following the Conservatives’ 1997 defeat, their leader William Hague saw modest gains in the 1998 local elections. Similarly, Ed Miliband’s Labour saw gains in 2011 after their 2010 loss. Badenoch’s Conservatives, however, are deviating significantly from this established pattern.
BBC’s Political Research Unit reveals a continued decline since the local elections, with the Conservatives losing an additional 47 councillors—approximately two per day.
Various factors contribute to this decline: six defections to Reform UK (including two this week), several resignations to become independents, one defection to Labour, and three deaths. Conversely, one independent councillor joined the Conservatives.
While not unprecedented, such a rapid loss of councillors is unusual and interpreted by some as further evidence of the party’s weakening foundations.
During the same period, Reform UK gained 19 councillors (through defections and by-elections), while losing five. The notable absence of any Conservative-Reform coalitions underscores the direct competition between the two parties, even at the local level.
The Conservatives’ polling numbers have also fallen since the local elections. A recent YouGov poll placed them in fourth place with 16%, their lowest ever rating with that pollster.
While potentially an anomaly—a subsequent poll showed them in third place—the temporary fourth-place ranking significantly impacted Tory morale.
Badenoch’s performance at Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs) was previously considered to be improving. This perception shifted on May 21st when Keir Starmer announced a policy U-turn, which Badenoch seemingly overlooked in her response.
Badenoch denied her team’s assessment that she missed the significance of Starmer’s statement. “Those unfamiliar with PMQs often offer unsolicited advice,” she remarked.
Badenoch’s team has suggested incorporating more humor into her PMQs performances, but she prefers a more serious, argumentative approach.
“She prefers a more serious tone,” says a party source. “She believes PMQs should be a substantive exchange of arguments and viewpoints.”
Ironically, given Reform’s rise, Starmer often uses Badenoch’s questions to criticize Reform, despite their minimal presence in Parliament.
Some suggest the Conservatives are indirectly suffering from Starmer’s unpopularity: Labour’s decline has driven voters dissatisfied with the Conservatives towards Reform.
Reform’s success, however unexpected, arguably stems from an early strategic decision by Badenoch.
During her leadership campaign, Badenoch distinguished herself by emphasizing a fundamental reassessment of policy priorities, prioritizing a return to core principles before defining specific policy positions.
This approach has led Badenoch to repeatedly avoid specific policy questions, launching multiple policy reviews to determine the party’s future direction.
Many colleagues view this approach as at best naive.
“Her refusal to engage on policy has been disastrous,” says a senior Conservative. “Reform has become the de facto opposition due to a conscious decision by her and her team.”
Even some shadow cabinet ministers involved in these policy reviews concur. “We need to develop policy more quickly,” one stated.
Another urged Badenoch to better articulate the party’s values while adhering to her policy development schedule.
Others argue that this criticism misses the mark, citing Badenoch’s stated intentions to reverse Labour policies on inheritance tax for farms and VAT on private school fees, and changes to the Conservative stance on net zero and the European Convention on Human Rights.
“The problem isn’t a lack of communication; people simply aren’t listening,” says a shadow minister.
Beyond strategic disagreements, mundane frustrations arise from financial constraints.
While parties typically downsize after a general election, the Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) experienced significant, ultimately compulsory, redundancies. This led to Badenoch reassuring party members that the restructuring was strategic, not financially motivated. “Disregard the ill-informed media reports from disgruntled sources,” she stated.
Shadow cabinet ministers have reported shortages of advisors, due to budgetary limitations.
“The transition from a large civil service support system to self-reliance in responding to the government is challenging,” says a shadow minister, alone at a parliamentary table.
Badenoch’s supporters and critics alike attribute both financial and personnel problems to her challenging inheritance.
“Many don’t understand the state of CCHQ,” explains an MP. “Significant effort is required to rebuild the party, a process that is still ongoing.”
Opposition party funding is based on a scheme known as Short Money. While Badenoch’s office receives a fixed sum, the rest depends on the number of seats and votes won in the general election—both low for the Conservatives, resulting in reduced income.
Badenoch’s shadow cabinet choices were limited, constituting nearly 20% of Conservative MPs. Still, complaints persist regarding the varying levels of commitment from shadow cabinet members, and calls for Badenoch to appoint more newly-elected Conservatives to senior positions.
While reshuffle rumors are commonplace, these concerns are amplified by Reform UK’s emergence.
Previously, discussions about Reform often centered on potential pacts; now, the focus is on the existential crisis Reform poses to the Conservatives.
“A pact is unrealistic at this point; it would mean the Conservatives essentially merging with Reform,” states a Conservative MP.
Even those confident in the Conservatives’ eventual recovery question when more pessimistic MPs might defect.
Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, tops many such lists.
When asked about joining Reform, Braverman highlighted her long-standing commitment to the Conservative Party but warned colleagues of Reform’s staying power.
More concerning than current MP defections is the potential loss of future MPs and advisors, crucial to the party’s health. A “crossover point” is anticipated, where ambitious young right-wing politicians might find Reform more appealing than the Conservatives.
Despite their frustrations, many Conservative MPs believe Badenoch deserves more time. The next set of local elections, coinciding with Scottish and Welsh parliament elections, will be critical.
A shadow cabinet minister states: “Realistically, any leader, including Badenoch, needs at least two years to prove their worth.”
Others disagree. “Changing leaders again might seem foolish,” says a senior Conservative. “But, as with Liz Truss, the public might welcome such a move.”
One factor in Badenoch’s favor is that many Conservatives believe Reform’s surge is temporary. A shadow cabinet minister suggests that, just as Nigel Farage benefited from a political acceleration, he may now be perceived as outdated.
Others highlight Reform’s limited depth of talent. “A one-man band can’t win a general election or become the largest party. Farage needs to share the spotlight,” remarks a senior figure from the previous Conservative government.
These questions, however dramatic, reflect the concerns of many within the Conservative Party.
Additional reporting by Peter Barnes and Oscar Bentley.
Top picture credit: Getty Images
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