Data reveals that Russia continues to generate billions from fossil fuel exports to the West, significantly financing its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, now in its fourth year.
Since the invasion began in February 2022, Russia’s hydrocarbon export revenue surpasses Ukraine’s allied aid by more than threefold.
BBC analysis shows that Western allies have collectively paid Russia more for hydrocarbons than they have provided in aid to Ukraine.
Advocates contend that European and North American governments must strengthen efforts to curtail the flow of Russian oil and gas, which fuels the Ukrainian conflict.
Fossil fuel revenues are crucial to sustaining Russia’s war effort.
Oil and gas constitute nearly one-third of Russia’s state revenue and over 60% of its exports.
Following the February 2022 invasion, Ukraine’s allies implemented sanctions on Russian hydrocarbons. The US and UK banned Russian oil and gas, while the EU prohibited Russian seaborne crude imports, but not gas.
Nevertheless, by May 29th, Russia had accrued over €883bn ($973bn; £740bn) in revenue from fossil fuel exports since the invasion’s commencement, including €228bn from sanctioning nations, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
EU member states contributed the largest share, €209bn.
EU states continued direct pipeline gas imports from Russia until Ukraine halted transit in January 2025; however, Russian crude oil continues to be piped to Hungary and Slovakia.
Russian gas continues to flow to Europe via Turkey in increasing quantities, with CREA data indicating a 26.77% rise in January and February 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
Hungary and Slovakia also receive Russian pipeline gas via Turkey.
Despite Western efforts, Russian fossil fuel revenues in 2024 only decreased by 5% compared to 2023, mirroring a similar 6% drop in export volumes, according to CREA. Last year also saw a 6% increase in crude oil export revenues and a 9% year-on-year increase in pipeline gas revenues.
Russian estimates suggest gas exports to Europe increased by up to 20% in 2024, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports reaching record highs. Currently, CREA states that half of Russia’s LNG exports are destined for the EU.
EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, attributes the alliance’s failure to impose the “strongest sanctions” on Russian oil and gas to member states’ concerns about conflict escalation and the short-term cost-effectiveness of continued purchases.
LNG imports remain excluded from the EU’s 17th sanctions package against Russia, but a roadmap has been adopted aiming to eliminate all Russian gas imports by the end of 2027.
Data consistently demonstrates that Russia’s fossil fuel revenues exceed the total aid received by Ukraine from its allies.
The West’s attempts to limit Russia’s war funding are hampered by its continued reliance on Russian fuel.
Mai Rosner, a senior campaigner at Global Witness, suggests many Western policymakers fear that curtailing Russian fuel imports will lead to higher energy prices.
“Many governments lack a genuine desire to restrict Russia’s oil production and sales, overly concerned about the impact on global energy markets. There’s a reluctance to disrupt energy markets significantly,” she told the BBC.
Beyond direct sales, some Russian oil reaches the West after processing into fuel products in third countries, utilizing a “refining loophole.” This oil is sometimes blended with crude from other nations.
CREA identifies three “laundromat refineries” each in Turkey and India, processing Russian crude and supplying fuel to sanctioning countries. They estimate €6.1bn worth of Russian crude has been used to produce products for sanctioning countries.
India’s petroleum ministry criticised CREA’s report as a deceptive attempt to damage India’s reputation.
“Sanctioning countries accept this. It’s a legal loophole, known to all, yet largely unaddressed,” says Vaibhav Raghunandan, a CREA analyst.
Campaigners and experts argue that Western governments possess the means to curb the flow of oil and gas revenue to the Kremlin.
Vladimir Milov, a former Russian deputy energy minister and current Putin opponent, advocates for stricter enforcement of sanctions on Russian hydrocarbon trade, particularly the G7 oil price cap, which he believes “is ineffective“.
He expresses concern that the US government restructuring under President Trump could hinder agencies like the US Treasury and OFAC, crucial for sanctions enforcement.
Another avenue involves continued pressure on Russia’s “shadow fleet” of tankers evading sanctions.
“This requires ongoing action, regularly targeting new sanctioned vessels, shell companies, traders, and insurers,” Milov explains, noting greater Western effectiveness in this area, especially with new sanctions introduced by the outgoing Biden administration in January 2025.
Rosner suggests banning Russian LNG exports to Europe and closing the refining loophole in Western jurisdictions as “crucial steps toward fully decoupling the West from Russian hydrocarbons.”
Raghunandan from CREA believes that abandoning Russian LNG imports would be relatively straightforward for the EU.
“Fifty percent of Russia’s LNG exports go to the EU, while only 5% of total EU LNG consumption in 2024 originated from Russia. A complete EU cutoff would severely impact Russia far more than EU consumers,” he told the BBC.
Experts interviewed by the BBC dismissed Donald Trump’s suggestion that OPEC-driven lower oil prices would end the Ukraine war.
“Moscow finds this laughable, as the primary casualty would be the American shale oil industry, the world’s least competitive,” Milov stated.
Raghunandan points out that Russia’s crude production costs are lower than in OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia, making them more vulnerable to lower oil prices.
“Saudi Arabia would never agree. Past attempts have caused conflict between Saudi Arabia and the US,” he adds.
Rosner highlights the moral and practical incongruity of the West supporting Ukraine while simultaneously purchasing Russian hydrocarbons.
“We’re funding both the aggressor and the resistance. Fossil fuel dependence makes us susceptible to energy markets, global producers, and hostile dictators,” she concludes.
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